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Electric Vehicles

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Postby wibblywobbly » Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:41 am

Now that the government has announced the abolition of petrol/diesel vehicles in 2040, I am wondering how this is going to work, and have they thought it through?

An electric bicycle can go about 20 miles, top speed limited to 15mph in Europe, way faster in the US. They can be derestricted to go faster, but are then classed as a moped, so need tax & insurance. Battery recharge around 3 hours?

An electric motorcycle can go 200 miles, top speed is unlimited, anything from 80mph to over 200mph. Battery recharge about 6 hours.

An electric car can go about 200 miles, top speed is unlimited, anything from 80mph to whatever. Battery recharge about 3-6 hours.

Sound great? Except not everyone has a driveway, so to charge the battery every house, apartment etc will have a charging cable from the house to the road. Two vehicles per house...6 hours charge time...that's a lot of cables running all over the place?

Charging stations? Hmmm, who is going to be happy driving 200 miles, and then having to stop for 3-6 hours to fill their tank?

There will be no profit in recharging stations, so either they are going to charge petrol prices, or the current fuel stations will shut down. In which case, where do you charge the batteries.

The batteries have a limited lifespan, and are hugely expensive, hence after a few years the electric car will lose a huge proportion of its initial cost.

The changeover will happen within 5-10 years. Not 2040. Only E-vehicles will be manufactured and sold, it's happening already, the petrol stations will begin closing, fuel will be harder to find, so people will start buying E-cars.

As for internal combustion vehicles, it should be pretty obvious that as more people switch to electric vehicles fuel sales will drop. No sales, no profit, so they will shut down. Fuel will become increasingly difficult to find. Who is going to buy a petrol or diesel car when it will be worthless within a few years?

Which industries will collapse?

Motorhomes, Caravans, Campsites, Tourist Industry, Haulage Industry, Oil Industry, Engine design and tooling, AA/RAC etc, Call Centres, Insurance, Petrol stations, Garages, OIl tanker crews, Shipbuilding.
Anything outside of a city will be unreachable without a lot of hassle.
Mass unemployment will happen on a global scale.

Practical example?
You live 400 miles from a ferry port, and want to go on a driving holiday around France.
Drive 200 miles, stop for 3 hours. Drive 200 miles and either get to the port 3 hours early and charge the battery before you embark, or wait 3 hours in France before continuing with your journey. Every 200 miles, stop for 3 hours.
No one in their right mind will do this, so the whole industry will collapse.
What is the alternative? Fly, Rail, Coach. None of which are electric powered. They will rack their prices up as they know that the public have no choice but to use them. The volume of passengers and the logistics of travel has the potential to descend into chaos.

More power stations will be needed, and that means nuclear unless someone invents something pretty quickly.

Be prepared folks.... 8O
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Postby Son of a gun-ner » Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:34 pm

And all to cut down on pollution.
They forget, most electric still comes from coal fired power stations, some from oil or gas fired, and not that much electric as people think from nuclear stations, and all those 'fired' power stations kick out tons of pollution. And going on the laws of physics, can't get something from nothing, they will have to kick out tons more pollution to supply all that extra electric, yes, electric vehicles may be cleaner on the streets, but will still contribute the exact same to global warming without a radical change to power stations.
And as for employment, you've hit the nail on the head, far less jobs.
As for using transport instead, that's what the government and local authorities want, more people using public transport with less cars on the road.

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Postby Son of a gun-ner » Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:41 pm

Oh, and don't forget the global economy, isn't that directly connected to oil? As in, oil barrel prices, the economy seems to go up and down with barrel prices, less oil, higher prices, what they going to do if say, the demand for oil was cut by even as much as 5%

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Postby HERMAN BIX » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:03 pm

And you guys live in a land mass the size of New Zealand...............hows it going to work down here when the trip to work for me takes 8 hours and there are 3 gas stations on the way, and zero options for existing alternative power supplies , on a short trip inside one state ??
I see road signs on the morning commute that remind you that the distance from where I live to a major northern city in Queensland is longer than it is from the Channel to the middle of Belarus !!In the same state 8O

The infrastructure for the average nation will be cost prohibitive to set up with any volume in mind.
By the way.............Exxon Mobil is currently taking the U.S. Government to court for issues surrounding interference in the pricing structure.!
Taking the U.S. Government to court !! because they CAN
Sure, if oil evaporates tomorrow morning, we all will find a way, but until it does, even GOD cannot change mans ordained right to proper fuel.

Im lucky that I will surely be dead before the fuel supply cartels are replaced with "battery recharge/exchange" ones
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Postby wibblywobbly » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:03 pm

I just looked up the cost of a home charging socket....and a 6 hour charge is not 'cheap', even at todays prices. if anyone thinks that running an electric car is cheap they had better think again.

You can add house prices into the mix, anyone who lives/works more than 50 miles from a city is stuffed really. This means that all of those thousands of new homes that are being built in the back of beyond will tumble in value.

Imagine all of those sales reps that travel hundreds of miles each day, that will end as well, 100 miles out, 100 back, and a recharge is needed? At motorway speeds they will be lucky to get 100-150 miles.
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Postby wibblywobbly » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:16 pm

HERMAN BIX wrote:And you guys live in a land mass the size of New Zealand...............hows it going to work down here when the trip to work for me takes 8 hours and there are 3 gas stations on the way, and zero options for existing alternative power supplies , on a short trip inside one state ??
I see road signs on the morning commute that remind you that the distance from where I live to a major northern city in Queensland is longer than it is from the Channel to the middle of Belarus !!In the same state 8O

The infrastructure for the average nation will be cost prohibitive to set up with any volume in mind.
By the way.............Exxon Mobil is currently taking the U.S. Government to court for issues surrounding interference in the pricing structure.!
Taking the U.S. Government to court !! because they CAN
Sure, if oil evaporates tomorrow morning, we all will find a way, but until it does, even GOD cannot change mans ordained right to proper fuel.

Im lucky that I will surely be dead before the fuel supply cartels are replaced with "battery recharge/exchange" ones


The other issue is that if manufacturers switch to pure e-vehicles then those who live in countries with vast distances to cover, and few charging stations, are up the paddle without a creek. IC cars will not be available to buy, E-cars will be the only choice. They can only sell mass produced IC cars if there is a global demand. No demand, no production, the only choice will be an e-car. Unless you are going to be dead within ten years...this will affect you, no two ways about it. IC cars will be so inconvenient to use as there is nowhere to get fuel that people will get rid of them. resale values will plummet. Fuel demand will drop and fuel stations will simply close down.

Charging stations will not be in the middle of the countryside on the off chance that someone 'might' need a recharge, there won't be any profit in it.

A mate of mine had a stroke that affected his eyesight. He lost his licence so had to sell his £500 car and £2500 motorcycle. He just bought an e-bike, it was £2500!?, plus helmet and lycra shorts. It does 15mph?
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Postby RobW » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:33 pm

OK, hopefully won't start an argument. There is a lot of misinformation, spin and rubbish out there - and that's from the greens, government & oil companies.

UK coal stations are closing, the last few are expected to close in the next couple of years as they use up their CO2 allowance and are already basically obsolete. I wasn't aware any oil fired stations were still in operation, there are still some diesel generators for emergency power and to help spin up the gas turbines.
We using an increasing amount of renewable energy, which can be intermittant. Storage is being investigated: if we can charge cars during the day and late at night this could solve some of the problems.

Range problems are reducing, the new Tesla reckons on 300 miles and the technology is moving quickly. A 30 minute fast charge will get you mostly full, and personally I'd want a break from driving at that point. Battery renewal does need looking at, but look at the tanks - we've got nickel, LiOn, LiPo etc and they're toys.

Part of the issue is not to replace all the petrol cars. If we can rethink how we travel, and how we work the traffic (and therefore fuel use) reduce. Face it, we can't get that many more cars on the roads: maybe electric bikes are the solution! This is an issue for the government, along with setting up ways to reinforce the grid, set charger station standards and figure out how we charge at home.

Reducing the use of oil will affect the global economy. But we use an awful lot of it for plastics, drugs etc. It's also one of the few commodities where the buyer selects the price and the producer accepts it! The worst affected areas will be the Arab Gulf states with several other producers also suffering. We'll still want the natural gas, so those suppliers may even benefit.

I'm looking at the change as of no immediate concern. The government have done more U-turns than a driving instructor recently and we have another 20-30 years of fuel availability: other than my Land Rovers that's probably 2 new cars away. I will be wanting an electric engine for the 2a's though!

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Postby RobW » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:36 pm

wibblywobbly wrote:A mate of mine had a stroke that affected his eyesight. He lost his licence so had to sell his £500 car and £2500 motorcycle. He just bought an e-bike, it was £2500!?, plus helmet and lycra shorts. It does 15mph?


Most do 15mph on the battery - you can still pedal! Think of it as an assist rather than a replacement to the normal means of propulsion.

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Postby 971wright » Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:34 pm

I can see it now cars bursting into flames because something went wrong with charging . Just like Boeing had when they swopped over from lead acid batteries . All of us on here know what can happen if charging goes wrong , but do the general public. By the time this gets here I will probably have a wooden overcoat ,so I'm not that bothered lol

regards pete

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Postby jarndice » Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:41 pm

It seems that some of you have missed HM Governments drift,
They are trying to encourage the greater use not only of pure electric vehicles but "Hybrids" These vehicles lessen the need for the overnight recharge scenario plus the high cost of electricity.
Your local "Shell/BP station will still be there selling stale sandwiches giant teddy bears in fact just about everything except for spare bulbs and drive belts.
Shaun.

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Postby PainlessWolf » Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:57 pm

Good morning,
I'm personally hoping for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Tech like BMW is pushing to become an affordable option. This thing will take longer in the U.S. ( probably because we still have the kind of F-ing idiots who think that it's cool to modify their Diesels for 'Rolling Coal', spewing out huge black clouds of exhaust. ) Courts are just getting around to making that illegal, especially here in the West where most of us value our clean air. http://www.denverpost.com/2017/05/22/co ... oal-fines/
regards,
Painless
Last edited by PainlessWolf on Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jackalope » Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:48 pm

BS.
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Postby dgsselkirk » Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:32 pm

Toyota just announced their new fuel cell car. Since the implementation is 2040 think of the improvements that will be made in the next 23 odd years to battery and battery charging technology. Think of the improvements in the last 23 years and multiply by 10...

I have 2 star nephews who graduated with Dean's honours from U of W one of the best engineering schools in the world in nano technology and they have shown me some things on the electrical power side. You have no idea what is coming my friends.... :D
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Postby AlwynTurner » Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:40 pm

The worst thing about a change of technology like this is the social and economic disruption that this will cause. People will lose their jobs or need to be retrained, whole sections of the economy will disappear over time and be replaced by new businesses requiring skills that will be in short supply. This change is probably going to be the most significant in my lifetime, but totally necessary in the long term.

I just don't think it will happen in the timescales being put forward.

Alwyn :thumbup: :wave:
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Postby 43rdRecceReg » Fri Jul 28, 2017 8:03 pm

PainlessWolf wrote:Good morning,
I'm personally hoping for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Tech like BMW is pushing to become an affordable option. This thing will take longer in the U.S. ( probably because we still have the kind of F-ing idiots who think that it's cool to modify their Diesels for 'Rolling Coal', spewing out huge black clouds of exhaust. ) Courts are just getting around to making that illegal, especially here in the West where most of us value our clean air. http://www.denverpost.com/2017/05/22/co ... oal-fines/
regards,
Painless


Yes, Painless, this is a very promising technology. Cars can refuel fairly quickly and will have greater range than purely electric vehicles. They ought to be popular in hot arid countries, since the exhaust only drips water- not toxic gasses :thumbup:
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Postby tomhugill » Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:20 am

wibblywobbly wrote:Now that the government has announced the abolition of petrol/diesel vehicles in 2040, I am wondering how this is going to work, and have they thought it through?

An electric bicycle can go about 20 miles, top speed limited to 15mph in Europe, way faster in the US. They can be derestricted to go faster, but are then classed as a moped, so need tax & insurance. Battery recharge around 3 hours?

An electric motorcycle can go 200 miles, top speed is unlimited, anything from 80mph to over 200mph. Battery recharge about 6 hours.

An electric car can go about 200 miles, top speed is unlimited, anything from 80mph to whatever. Battery recharge about 3-6 hours.

Sound great? Except not everyone has a driveway, so to charge the battery every house, apartment etc will have a charging cable from the house to the road. Two vehicles per house...6 hours charge time...that's a lot of cables running all over the place?

Charging stations? Hmmm, who is going to be happy driving 200 miles, and then having to stop for 3-6 hours to fill their tank?

There will be no profit in recharging stations, so either they are going to charge petrol prices, or the current fuel stations will shut down. In which case, where do you charge the batteries.

The batteries have a limited lifespan, and are hugely expensive, hence after a few years the electric car will lose a huge proportion of its initial cost.

The changeover will happen within 5-10 years. Not 2040. Only E-vehicles will be manufactured and sold, it's happening already, the petrol stations will begin closing, fuel will be harder to find, so people will start buying E-cars.

As for internal combustion vehicles, it should be pretty obvious that as more people switch to electric vehicles fuel sales will drop. No sales, no profit, so they will shut down. Fuel will become increasingly difficult to find. Who is going to buy a petrol or diesel car when it will be worthless within a few years?

Which industries will collapse?

Motorhomes, Caravans, Campsites, Tourist Industry, Haulage Industry, Oil Industry, Engine design and tooling, AA/RAC etc, Call Centres, Insurance, Petrol stations, Garages, OIl tanker crews, Shipbuilding.
Anything outside of a city will be unreachable without a lot of hassle.
Mass unemployment will happen on a global scale.

Practical example?
You live 400 miles from a ferry port, and want to go on a driving holiday around France.
Drive 200 miles, stop for 3 hours. Drive 200 miles and either get to the port 3 hours early and charge the battery before you embark, or wait 3 hours in France before continuing with your journey. Every 200 miles, stop for 3 hours.
No one in their right mind will do this, so the whole industry will collapse.
What is the alternative? Fly, Rail, Coach. None of which are electric powered. They will rack their prices up as they know that the public have no choice but to use them. The volume of passengers and the logistics of travel has the potential to descend into chaos.

More power stations will be needed, and that means nuclear unless someone invents something pretty quickly.

Be prepared folks.... 8O


Your train going to France and within France will be electric for most of the journey.

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Postby HERMAN BIX » Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:32 am

Guns Gentleman, just like in mad max
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Postby Tiggr » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:02 pm

Don't worry guys, the oil companies will be shafting us for a good 15 years yet.

Here in Europe there is a 2 year storage reserve at any given time, yet if oil production is slowed down or increased, the price of petrol and diesel goes up the following day.....funny how it takes much longer for the price to come down though. >:<

I have been a racing cyclist since I was 15 so I take an interest in electric bikes - you can mess with the speed limiter so that the bike will go faster than 15 mph - a guy near me has a mountain bike with a 1000W motor fitted - on the flat he does around 30mph and just sails up hills.

Most electric bikes at the moment are Fred Carno affairs, but as they become more popular, they will improve immensely, just as normal racing bikes have in the past 20 years
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Postby Raminator » Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:54 am

wibblywobbly wrote:Practical example?
You live 400 miles from a ferry port, and want to go on a driving holiday around France.
Drive 200 miles, stop for 3 hours. Drive 200 miles and either get to the port 3 hours early and charge the battery before you embark, or wait 3 hours in France before continuing with your journey. Every 200 miles, stop for 3 hours.
No one in their right mind will do this, so the whole industry will collapse.

Is this a practical example in a post-Brexit world? ;)
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Postby jarndice » Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:49 am

I think that is why people who want to do more than just commute buy a hybrid instead of a pure electric car.
Shaun.

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